university-level courses widely available, has not yet tackled the technician shortage. The online competency based module (OCBM) is closer to the mark and a growing number of companies are offering them. 6 As these technologies mature, more people will be able to get online training and be certified in a new skill set. With support from their employers, workers can also use these technologies for their continuing education.

The MOOC and OCBM demonstrate that not even the education process is exempt from automation. Before long, students whose only current choice is to enroll in a university may choose instead to enroll in a two-year college or a private company that offers such training. This could displace university faculty by depleting the flow of students seeking enrollment in college. No one is immune from automation of their jobs anymore.

 

References

1. Charette, R. Is there a US IT worker shortage? IEEE Spectrum (Sept. 3, 2013); http://spectrum.ieee.org/ riskfactor/computing/it/is-there-a-us-it-worker-shortage.

2. Denning, P. J. and Frailey, D. Who are we now?

Commun. ACM 54, 6 (June 2011), 27–30.

3. Gordon, E.E. Future Jobs: Solving the Employment and Skills Crisis. ABC-CLIO, 2013.

4. Government Technology. US cyber command looks to fill 6000 jobs. (Oct. 2, 2014); http://www.govtech.com/ federal/US-Cyber-Command-Looks-to-Fill-6000- Jobs.html.

5. Thibodeau, P. IBM cuts pay by 10% for workers picked for training. Computerworld (Sept. 15, 2014). http:// www.computerworld.com/article/2683239/ibm-cuts- pay-by-10-for-workers-picked-for-training.html.

6. Weise, M. and Christensen, C. Hire Education: Mastery, Modularization, and the Workforce Revolution. Christensen Institute (2014); http://www. christenseninstitute.org/publications/hire/.

 

Peter J. Denning ( [e-mail]) is Distinguished Professor of Computer Science and Director of the Cebrowski Institute for information innovation at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, CA, is Editor of ACM Ubiquity, and is a past president of ACM. The author’s views expressed here are not necessarily those of his employer or the U.S. federal government.

Edward E. Gordon ( [e-mail]) is president of Imperial Consulting, a Chicago-based firm that advises corporations, educational institutions, workforce boards, government agencies, and trade associations on talent development and education reform. His is the author of

Future Jobs: Solving the Employment and Skills Crisis

(Praeger, 2013) and has been featured in the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, The Futurist, the PBS NewsHour, the CBS Network’s Early Show, and CNN.

Copyright held by authors.

Yet there are worrisome reports that this principle is not widely accepted. An IBM division recently declared it would reduce salaries of employees by 10% for a six-month period while they were receiving training. 5 The training was needed to maintain their qualifications for their future jobs. For IBM, this is a sharp break from its own history of supporting education and professional development of its people. We understand that other IT industries are considering similar policies of “cost sharing” for required training. Such policies would be disastrous if they became widespread.

Another worrisome aspect is that many companies are not investing in R&D, equipment, and training, which all affect their long-term future. Many are plowing their cash into stock buy-backs and some are going into debt to do so. The Economist (Sept. 13, 2014) said: “In 2013 38% of [U.S.] firms paid more in buy-backs than their cash-flows could support, an unsustainable position. Some American multinationals with apparently healthy global balance sheets are, in fact, dangerously lopsided. They are borrowing heavily at home to pay for buy-backs while keeping cash abroad to avoid America’s high corporate tax rate.” Financial Times listed six major IT companies in the top 10 engaged in buy-backs. The policy climate is drawing companies into short-term decisions that do not align with their long-term interests.

Finding the Way Out

Education is the key to opening a path for people to move from a displaced position into a technician position that would give them productive work and a chance at rising pay, while easing joblessness and blunting the inequality between the IT elite and the rest of the workforce. Colleges and universities will not be of much help in the short run because they do not see themselves as part of the “ training” side of education.

One promising means is a new kind of organization called Regional Talent Innovation Networks (RETAINs). 3 They are non-profit intermediaries that link K– 12 schools, two-year colleges, community colleges, and work-place-based training and education.

Their goal is to produce well-educated STEM talent to support a technology-driven economy. Examples include High School, Inc. in Santa Ana, CA; the Vermillion Advantage in Danville, IL; the New North in northeastern Wisconsin; New Century Careers in Pittsburgh, PA; and the Steinbeck Cluster in Salinas, CA. There are more than 1,000 RETAINs across the U.S. and around the world.

RETAINs are particularly attractive to small business owners because they offer a viable way of pooling their resources in joint programs that will inform, attract, and prepare skilled workers for IT and other growing regional industries. RETAINs link regional employers, educational institutions, and other community organizations together as a collaborative network, thereby reducing the individual company’s investment in employer-provid-ed education and training. RETAINs promote a more positive overall regional business culture of sharing rather than stealing workers from each other. We think RETAINs will play a key role in the reeducation of workers displaced by digital automation.

Another promising means is the career academy. These high schools blend a stronger liberal arts curriculum with specific practical career education courses and internship experiences. Over 2,500 comprehensive career academies are already operating. Many are stand-alone learning communities within larger high schools. Some are stand-alone career high schools in health care, IT, and various STEM areas.

Because the demand for sub-bachelor skills is so obvious, private entrepreneurs have been starting businesses to provide inexpensive online training. The MOOC, which makes

Coding is
the basis of
many technician
skills in IT.