Communications of the ACM

I M A G E B Y A N T O N I O / I S T O C K

to the effects of automation in the past, which have followed a pattern of initial disruptions followed by a period of adjustment that culminated in long-term gains.

A classic example is the Industrial Revolution, the massively disruptive transformation of the economy beginning in the 18th century. Industrialization created decades of problems, from changes in job structure and skills demanded to horrendous working conditions for those who did get the new factory jobs; eventually, though, industrialized economies adjusted, with enormous increases in prosperity. A major expansion of education and the rise of labor unions made sure that workers shared in these gains.

Similarly, in the first part of the 20th century, in what’s been called the

RARELY DOES A day go by with- out more news predicting the end of work. After all, autonomous vehicles are all but certain to replace truckers and taxi drivers in the coming decades, and robots have already taken over many jobs in factories and warehouses, and will continue to expand their reach beyond heavy industry as they become smarter and ever more affordable.

Perhaps most frighteningly, even professional services no longer seem safe from the encroachment of increasingly sophisticated artificial intelligence (AI). Law firms, for example, employ electronic-discovery software, which uses natural language processing to sift through reams of documents faster and more cheaply than the entry-level lawyers who used to do this tedious work. Deep-learning image recognition tools can flag and classify worrisome tumors in digital scans as well as, or better than, experienced radiologists. Websites like Wealth-front and Betterment, which algorith-mically optimize investment portfolios, are giving financial advisors a run for their money.

No one doubts that automation is replacing many jobs, but will advances in technology also create plenty of new jobs? If so, what kind(s)?

These questions have taken on new urgency in the past year, as the startling rise of populism and the election of U.S. President Donald J. Trump have awakened previously complacent white-collar workers to the plight of the large numbers of Americans left behind by automation and other changes in the U.S. economy over the past several decades.

For example, according to a widely
reported recent study by economists
Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Re-
strepo, industrial robots alone have
eliminated as many as 670,000 U.S.
jobs between 1990 and 2007. As some
displaced workers stay unemployed,
while others must settle for signifi-
cantly lower-paying work in the retail
and service sectors, society pays the
price in the form of lower consumer
spending, higher crime rates, and a
lower tax base.

“Two-thirds of people in this country
don’t have a four-year degree,” points
out Moshe Vardi, senior editor of Com-
munications and a professor of compu-
tational engineering at Rice University
who writes and lectures on the impact
of automation on work. “We have to
make sure we have an economy that
creates jobs for them—and not only
jobs for the people who have a Ph.D. in
computer science.”
What kinds of jobs will the tech-
driven economy create? Although no
one can peer into the future, experts
make educated guesses by looking