Communications of the ACM

social network. These systems are susceptible to sudden changes of structure of unpredictable onset and extent. The best we can say is the conditions for avalanche are present but we cannot say with any certainty the avalanche will actually happen or, if it does, what its extent will be. In other words, we are able to explain an avalanche after it happens but we are profoundly unable to predict anything about it before it happens.

Earthquake preparedness is an example in nature that does not depend on humans. Seismic experts can tell us where the fault lines are and compute the probabilities of earthquake on different faults. They cannot, however, predict when an earthquake will happen or how large it will be. In effect they are trying to predict when an earthy avalanche—collapse of structure in a section of earth’s crust—will happen. Similarly, snow experts know when conditions are “ripe” for an avalanche and can call for evacuating the area. But they cannot know exactly where a snow avalanche may start, or when, or how much snow will sweep down. These experts call on people to be prepared but few actually heed the advice and lay in necessary supplies or make necessary contingency plans.

Navigating in Uncertainty

Complexity researchers have turned to simulations of complex systems to see when avalanches happen and how large they are. These simulations often reveal regularities in the state spaces of those systems that can be usefully exploited to make predictions.

What are more pragmatic things we can do to cope with uncertainty? We can learn some lessons from those who must deal with disasters such as fires, earthquakes, floods, or terror attacks. Their data shows the times between events and sizes of events follow power laws and cannot be predicted. Their coping strategy boils down to preparedness and resiliency. Preparedness means to have recovery resources standing by in case of need. Resiliency means to rapidly bounce back and restore order and function.

They have worked out strategies to
identify the situations most “ripe” for
an avalanche. For instance, the power
law for terror attacks shows that at-
tacks tend to cluster in time at a given
location Thus, a next attack is more
likely at the same location as the cur-
rent attack The preparedness strate-
gies include rapid mobilization of law
enforcement just after an attack to
counter the tendency for a new attack,
and to identify optimal geographic
locations for positioning recovery re-
sources and supplies. Resilience strat-
egies include rapidly mobilizing tech-
nicians and artisans to restore broken
communications and facilities.

Uncertainty in Professional Work

What can we do when we find ourselves in chaotic situations and must still navigate through the uncertainty to achieve our goals?

One of the most difficult environments to navigate is the social space in which we perform our work. This space is dominated by choices that other people make beyond our control. When we propose innovations, we are likely to encounter resistance from some sectors of our community that do not want the innovation; they can be quite inventive in finding ways to block our proposals. 2 When we start new projects or even companies, we do not know whether our plans are going to take off or just wither away. Even in normal everyday working environments, conflicts and contingencies suddenly arise and we must resolve them to keep moving forward.

The analogy of a surfer is useful in ap-
proaching these situations. A surfer aims
to ride the waves to the shore without los-
ing balance and being swept under. The
waves can be turbulent and unpredict-
able. The surfer must maintain balance,
ride the crests moving toward the shore,
and dodge side waves and cross currents.
The surfer may need to jump to a new
wave when the time is right, or quickly
tack to avoid an unfavorable current or
wind. Thus, the surfer generates a path
through the turbulent waves.

In the social space, waves manifest as groups of people disposed to move in certain directions and not in others—sometimes the waves appear as fads or “memes” and they have a momentum that is difficult to divert. As a professional, we become aware of these waves and try to harness them to carry us toward our goal. As each surprise pops up, we instinctively look for openings into which we can move—and, more importantly, we create openings by starting conversations that assuage the concerns of those whose resistance threatens to block us. These little deals cut a path through the potential resistance and get us to our goal.

The lesson here is that we listen for the waves, ride their momentum toward our goal, and make adjustments by creating openings in our conversations with other people. At its best, the complexity theory helps us understand when a process is susceptible to unpredictable avalanches. We move beyond the limitations of the theory by generating openings in our conversations with other people.

References

1. Bak, P. How Nature Works: The Science of Self-Organized Criticality. Springer-Verlag, 1996.

2. Denning, P. Winning at innovation. IEEE Computer (Oct. 2018), 32–39.

3. Eldredge, N. and Gould, S.J. Punctuated equilibria: An alternative to phyletic gradualism. In T.J.M. Schopf, Ed., Models in Paleobiology. Freeman Cooper, San Francisco, CA, 82–115.

4. Lewis, T. G. Bak’s Sand Pile: Strategies for a Catastrophic World. Agile Press (2011), 382.

5. Rogers, E. Diffusion of Innovations (5th edition). Free Press, 2003.

6. Taleb, N.N. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. Random House, 2007, 2010.

Peter J. Denning ( pjd@nps.edu) is Distinguished Professor of Computer Science and Director of the Cebrowski Institute for information innovation at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, CA, USA, is Editor of ACM Ubiquity, and is a past president of ACM. The author’s views expressed here are not necessarily those of his employer or the USA federal government.

Ted G. Lewis ( tedglewis@redshift.com) is an author and consultant with more than 30 books on computing and hi-tech business, a retired professor of computer science, most recently at the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA, USA, a Fortune 500 executive, and the co-founder of the Center for Homeland Defense and Security at the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA, USA.