ties in the academy and industry. But
that could soon change. Global challengers Russia and Chinag recognize
the importance of shaping AI technologies and have poured substantial support and funding into boosting their
national industries. If the U.S. falls behind, global innovation arbitrageh will
kick in and technologists and companies will flock to countries where such
creativity is treated more hospitably.
How can the U.S. stay ahead? Part
of the reason the U.S. has been so successful with AI deployment is a relatively permissive policy regime. The
U.S. houses some of the most successful technology companies in the world
due to the federal government’s explicit embrace of permissionless innovation in the 1990s.i Other countries,
particularly in Europe,j that pursued a
more precautionary approach ended
up hemorrhaging talent to other more
open environments.
To date, there is no central regulatory authority tasked with reviewing
and approving each new instance of
AI development in the U.S. Rather,
regulators at disparate agencies apply
existing rules in accordance with their
established authorities—so the FDA
oversees applications of health-related
AI, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) monitors automated
trading, and the National Highway
Transportation Safety Administration
(NHTSA) is tasked with autonomous
vehicle oversight. While imperfect, this
approach has the benefit of limiting
regulations to a narrow domain.
Case Study: Autonomous Cars
Autonomous transport presents perhaps the most salient example of how
AI will fundamentally change our future. Of course, driverless cars and
commercial drones also generate some
of the greatest anxieties regarding safety and control. As such, they provide a
good example of the tensions between
onerous regulation and a more permissive policy environment.
Americans in general are a bit worried by the concept of driverless cars.
According to an October 2017 Pew
g https://bit.ly/2eRiynC
h https://bit.ly/2pWKnwy
i https://bit.ly/2QZaXRb
j https://bit.ly/2CRKi66
higher and take risks in braving the
high seas precisely because progress
and prosperity—for both them and society at large—depend upon it.
The same holds true for all new innovations. When we fail to consider
the upsides new developments could
bring, we can end up doing more harm
to ourselves than if we allowed a new
technique to continue without burden.
Consider drug regulation. On its
face, it seems logical for a pharmaceutical regulator like the Food and Drug
Administration (FDA) to maintain exacting regulations against new medicines until they can be proven almost
entirely safe. After all, the risk of dangerous side effects harming or even
killing people in the long term is a formidable one indeed.
But what about the people who could
be saved by an experimental treatment
that is unjustly delayed or prohibited?
We don’t see these people or their
plights as readily, but they are just as
real. Because their suffering or death is
under the radar, the tragic effects of this
kind of error are not accounted for. This
was the unfortunate outcome of the
FDA’s delayed approval of a drug named
Misoprostol to treat gastric ulcers in the
early 1980s. Their dithering ended up
costing up to 15,000 lives.a
Humans are already well aware of
the first-order risks of new technolo-
gies like AI applications. We fear errors
in the opposite direction: that policy-
makers and the public will underrate
the improvements AI can bring, and
will allow fears of worst-case scenarios
to justify policies that ensure best-case
scenarios never come about.
What’s at Stake
After centuries of speculation in both
the academy and science fiction, AI is
finally shaping our lives in important
ways. While we are still far away from
the kind of “strong,” self-directing
AI first anticipated by Mary Shelley’s
Frankenstein almost 200 years ago, narrower applications of machine learning and big data techniques are already integrated into the world around
us in subtle but important ways.
Many are unaware of just how prevalent AI techniques already are.b They
a https://bit.ly/1PokgDI
b https://bit.ly/2fpaUQ7
quietly help to more efficiently connect
us with the information that is most
valuable to us, whether the data in
question is related to healthcare, con-
sumer products and services, or just
reconnecting with an old friend.
For example, neural networks can
help doctors to diagnose medical ail-
mentsc and recommend treatments,
thereby saving money on testing and
office visits and potentially improving
the likelihood of recovery and remis-
sion. Yelpd has developed a machine
learning program that translates us-
er-submitted restaurant photos into
searchable data on a restaurant’s
cuisine and atmosphere. And the
rise of AI-powered “virtual personal
assistants”e on social media platforms
will help us to better keep track of our
relationships and obligations with lit-
tle thought required on our parts.
And yet these marginal improvements in efficiency and matching will
yield great dividends in our economy
and our personal lives. Analystsf project
savings and economic growth to exceed
hundreds of billions or even trillions of
dollars over the coming decade, thanks
to improvements in manufacturing,
transit, and health. The ease and convenience of tailored artificial assistance
will likewise improve our overall qualities of life and leave us more time to do
the things that really matter to us.
The U.S. in particular has been a
leader in AI development, boasting the
world’s most innovative research facili-
c https://bit.ly/2RZf7Km
d https://bit.ly/2R4SYZZ
e https://on.ft.com/2pX38QE
f https://on.ft.com/2pX38QE
Part of the reason
the U.S. has been
so successful
with AI deployment
is a relatively
permissive
policy regime.