they assume careful preplanning minimizes risk and maximizes dependability
and usability. However, more leaders are
pushing for agile acquisition because
the track record of the normal process in
dynamic environments is so dismal.
The software engineering community has hotly debated preplanned versus agile processes. After a while they
reached a truce where they agreed that
preplanning is best for large systems
where reliability and risk-avoidance are
prime concerns, and agile is best for
small to medium systems where adaptability and user friendliness are prime
concerns.
We challenge that conclusion. Preplanning is ceasing to be a viable option
for large systems. Moreover, many small
systems aim to be ultra-reliable.
evolutionary ecosystems
Evolutionary development uses “loosely
managed” processes. Numerous successful large systems evolved through
such a process—CTSS, Unix, Linux,
Internet, Google, Amazon, eBay, Apple
iPhone Apps, and banking applications are notable examples. All these
systems relied on a common platform
used by all members of the community, from developers to users. In such
an ecosystem, successful prototypes
transition easily to working products.
It appears that the common ecosystem provides enough constraints that
loose management works. The successful ecosystems were guided by a
vision and a set of interaction rules
that everyone in the community accepted. Building ecosystems for governments is quite challenging because of organizational impediments
to information sharing. 5 We advocate
much more aggressive use of loosely
managed ecosystems. The W2COG
was conceived to allow government to
join a large ecosystem that could adaptively address its information networking needs.
Loosely managed does not mean unmanaged. Scrum and Extreme Programming (XP) are often cited as successful
management approaches for agile processes.
6 Even the respected Capability
Management Model (CMM) is amenable
to agile development.
Whereas preplanned development
seeks to avoid risks, evolutionary development mimics nature and embraces
Whereas preplanned
development
seeks to avoid
risks, evolutionary
development mimics
nature and
embraces risks.
risks. The developers purposely expose
emerging systems to risks to see how
they fail, and then they build better system variants. It is better to seek risk out
and learn how to survive it. In a natural
ecosystem, only the most fit organisms
survive. Fitness is nature’s way of managing risk.
All the evidence says that that evolutionary processes works for systems
large and small, and that risk seeking
is the fastest route to fitness. There is
too much at stake to continue to allow
us to be locked into a process that does
not work.
References
1. boehm, b. making a difference in the software century.
IEEE Computer (mar. 2008), 32–38.
2. brooks, f. The Mythical Man Month. anniversary
Edition. addison-Wesley, 1995.
3. cao, L. and balascubramaniam, r. agile software
development: ad hoc practice or sound principles?
IEEE Pro (mar.–apr. 2007), 41–47.
4. gao. Defense Acquisitions: Assessments of Selected
Weapons Programs. report gao-06-391 (mar. 2006);
http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d06391.pdf, and
Information Technology: DOD Needs to Ensure That
Navy Marine Corps Intranet Program Is Meeting
Goals and Satisfying Customers. report gao-07-51.
(dec. 2006); http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d0751.pdf.
55. hayes-roth, r., blais, c., brutzman, d. and Pullen,
m. how to implement national information sharing
strategy. AFCEA-GMU C4I Center Symposium:
Critical Issues in C4I, george mason university,
fairfax, va, afcEa (2008); http://c4i.gmu.edu/events/
reviews/2008/papers/25_hayes-roth.pdf.
6. schwaber, k. Agile Project Management with Scrum.
microsoft Press, 2004.
Peter J. Denning ( pjd@nps.edu) is the director of the
cebrowski institute for information innovation and
superiority at the Naval Postgraduate school in monterey,
ca, and is a past president of acm.
Chris Gunderson ( cgunders@w2cog.org), captain
(retired) u.s. Navy, is Principal investigator of the Naval
Postgraduate school W2cog and Netcentric certification
office initiatives.
Rick Hayes-Roth ( hayes-roth@nps.edu) is Professor of
information systems at the Naval Postgraduate school
in monterey, california, and was c To for software at
hewlett-Packard company.
Calendar
of Events
December 17-20
hipc ’08: 15th international
conference on high
performance computing
bangalore, india
sponsored: sigarch
contact: ajay K. gupta,
phone: 269-276-3104
email: ajay.gupta@wmich.edu
January 7-9
international conference on
Multimedia Modeling
sophia antipolis, France
contact: benoit huet,
phone: +33-0-493008179
email: benoit.huet@eurecom.fr
January 14-17
international conference
on bio-inspired systems and
signal processing
porto, portugal
contact: Joaquim b. Filipe,
phone: 351-91-983-3996
email: jfilipe@insticc.org
January 19-21
international conference
on agents and artificial
intelligence
porto, portugal
contact: Joaquim b. Filipe,
phone: 351-91-983-3996
email: jfilipe@insticc.org
January 19-22
asia and south pacific Design
automation conference
yokohama, Japan
contact: yutaka Tamiya,
phone: +81-44-754-2663
email: tamiya.yutaka@
jp.fujitsu.com
January 20-23
The eleventh australasian
computing education
conference
Wellington, New Zealand
contact: Margaret hamilton,
phone: 613-992-52939
email: mh@cs.rmit.edu.au
January 23-24
international conference
on advances in computing,
communication and control
Mumbai, india
contact: srija unnikrishnan,
phone: +919869005457
email: srija.unni@gmail.com