Interactions - March/April 2009

Research Strategies
for Future Planning
Colleen Murray

Jump Associates | colleen@jumpassociates.com

In 2005 Motorola hit the market Getting Beyond Current Thinking comes to pass. Scenario plan-
with a new, ultra-slim, sexy Companies everywhere fear ning is not a prediction tool.
cell phone: the RAZR. Almost what they can’t see coming. It’s Rather, it can help both com-
instantly, it became one of hard enough just to stay on top panies and individuals make
the most sought-after phones of what we know, not to men- smarter decisions in the short
of all time. For two years the tion the things we don’t. But term, while planning for the
RAZR captivated the industry. in today’s competitive market, long term. For Motorola, an eye
Consumers around the world that’s exactly what’s necessary. toward the future could have
couldn’t wait to get their hands Why do so many organizations indicated massive changes in
on the sleek, fashionable phone. fall prey to unpredictable chal- technology, consumer lifestyles,
Analysts praised Motorola’s lenges? Perhaps it’s because or the competitive landscape
miraculous turnaround. during times of uncertainty, it and helped them develop a
Publications gave the product often feels best to stick with future pipeline.
one innovation award after the familiar—to keep safely Scenario planning originated
another. And then, just as sud- within the frames of how we as a military planning tool.
denly as the RAZR appeared, it see and think about the world. In the 1960s Hermann Kahn
was gone. The iPhone came along In an effort to better under- brought it to the U.S. Air Force
and fundamentally changed stand consumers, design- and in an effort to help leaders get
both the market and consumer research-led organizations, a grasp of the different political
expectations for mobile phones. like Motorola, are optimized to situations in which they might
In an instant, we moved from understand what’s going on in find themselves down the road.
fashion to advanced functional- the world today. These groups It was first introduced to the
ity, and Motorola plummeted. have a plethora of processes, business world in the 1970s
What can cause a company to methods, and tools to help them when Shell Oil used the method
go from earning $623 million in accomplish this. Still, many to help divert disaster during
2006 to just $100 million a year companies struggle to plan for the OPEC oil crisis. Today fore-
later [1]? Motorola is an innova- what’s next: to learn not just sight experts such as William
tive company. It is known for what customers need today but Cockayne work with organiza-
being driven by design. Its lead- also to anticipate what they will tions to better prepare for iden-
ers hire top-notch researchers need in the future. tifying long-term opportunities
and anthropologists to under- and potential issues [3]. At Jump
stand people’s needs around Planning for an Uncertain Future Associates, we’ve used scenario
the world. And they know how Scenario planning is a strategic planning to help our clients rein-
to translate these insights into method that can help organiza- vent existing categories, iden-
great consumer experiences tions prepare for change. It’s tify new markets, and develop
[2]. This drive for innovation is a process for looking at what’s new sources of revenue. In the
arguably what led the company going on in the world, using process, we’ve seen how sce-
to create the RAZR in the first these trends to explore a variety nario planning helps us envision
place. And yet, for all of its of potential futures, and synthe- potential futures and benefits
capabilities, Motorola was still sizing these futures to strategize any project, not just ones with a
blindsided by the competition. how to prepare, no matter what scenario planning component.

[1] Holson, Laura.
“Without a Hit Razr
Sequel, Profit Drops
for Motorola,” New York
Times, 24 January 2008,
Technology section.
<http://www.nytimes.
com/2008/01/24/
technology/24motorola.
html>