from systems where individuals perform simple micro-tasks (http://mturk.
com) to where they compete to solve
complex engineering problems (http://
innocentive.com). Some systems harness the “wisdom of crowds” in contexts that range from “citizen science”
4
( http://fold.it, http://galaxyzoo.org)
to predicting box office performance
( http://hsx.com). Open idea ecologies
(where crowds of people share, recombine, and refine each other’s creative
outputs) have produced remarkable
results for everything from videos
( http://youtube.com) and encyclopedias ( http://wikipedia.org) to software
(Linux). Systems have been developed
that look for individual task-focused
“geniuses” ( http://marketocracy.com)
or, conversely, datamine the activity traces of millions of Internet users
(Google’s search engine). While these
systems cover an enormous range of
approaches, it has become clear from
these experiences that programming
the global brain is different from programming traditional computers in
some fundamental ways. Some of the
most important differences include:
˲ Motivational diversity: People, unlike current computational systems,
are self-interested and therefore require appropriate incentives—
anything from money, fame, and fun to
altruism and community—to perform
tasks. These incentives have to be
carefully designed, moreover, to avoid
people gaming the system or causing
outright damage. In some cases, one
may even use their motivation to do
one task to accomplish another, as in
reCAPTCHA, where people OCR documents as a side effect of passing a human versus bot test.
12
˲ Cognitive diversity: In most computer systems we deal with a limited
range of diversity—in terms of memory, speed, and device access. People,
by contrast, vary across many dimensions in the kinds of tasks they can do
well, and their individual strengths
are only incompletely understood at
best. This implies qualitative differences in how (and how well) we can expect to match tasks and resources in a
global brain context.
˲ Error diversity: With traditional
computers, we worry much more about
outright failure than other kinds of
errors. And the other errors are usu-
Because people
are involved,
programming the
global brain is
deeply different
from programming
traditional computers.
ally highly deterministic and limited
in diversity because a relatively small
range of software is typically replicated
across millions of computers. People,
by contrast, are prone to a bewildering and inconsistent variety of idiosyncratic deviations from rational and accurate performance. The global brain,
therefore, calls for a radically more
capable quality assurance oriented toward the particular kinds of errors that
occur with human participants. Fortunately, the global brain also provides
access, at least currently, to a huge human “cognitive surplus,”
11 so that, for
instance, quality mechanisms based
on previously unthinkable levels of redundancy have become practical.
10
These attributes lead, in turn, to
the possibility of new, and potentially
troubling, forms of emergence. Crowds
of people, when engaged in solving
interdependent problems, can evince
emergent behaviors that range from
groupthink (where decision-makers
converge prematurely on a small subset of the solution space) to balkaniza-tion (where decision-makers divide
into intransigent competing cliques)
to chaotic dynamics (for example,
stock market bubbles and crashes).
While emergence is, of course, not
unique to the global brain, it is probably made much more challenging by
the unprecedented combination of microsecond computer and communications speeds, globe-scale interdepen-dencies, and human diversity.
the Need for New
Programming metaphors
How, then, can we effectively program
a global brain, characterized as it is by
unique challenges (and opportunities)?
We believe a fundamental requirement
is developing powerful new program-
ming metaphors that more accurately
reflect the ways people and computers
can work together in the global brain.
For instance, today’s innovative collec-
tive intelligence systems embody a set
of common design patterns,
8 includ-
ing collections (where people create
independent items, such as YouTube
videos), collaborations (where people
create interdependent items, such as
Linux modules), and various kinds of
group and individual decisions (such as
voting, averaging, social networks, and
markets). These design patterns, in
turn, can be embodied in various pro-
gramming metaphors, such as: