editor’s letter

DOI: 10.1145/1897852.1897853
Moshe Y. Vardi
fumbling the future

Fumbling the Future: How Xerox Invented, Then Ignored, the First Personal Computer is the title of a classic 1998 book by D.K. Smith and R.C. Alexander that tells the gripping story of how Xerox invented the personal-computing technology in the 1970s, and then “miscalculated and mishandled” the opportunity to fully exploit it. To “fumble the future” has since become a standard phrase in discussions of advanced technology and its commercialization.

the future looks clear
only in hindsight.
it is rather easy to
practically stare
at it and not see it.

the report was recently declassified; see https://researcher.ibm.com/researcher/ files/zurich-pj/vision1%20-%202010.pdf.)

In the early 1990s, the computing environment at IBM Research was shifting from mainframe-based to workstation-based. Users requested an interface that would integrate the two environments. I got involved, together with several other people, in the development of ARCWorld, a software tool with a graphical user interface that allowed a user to manage and manipulate files on multiple Internet-connect-ed computer systems. Our focus was on file manipulation, rather than information display, but ARCWorld could have been described as a “file browser.” It was clear to all involved that ARCWorld was an innovative approach to wide-area information management, but it was difficult to see how it could fit within IBM’s product strategy at the time. Some feeble attempts at commercialization were not successful. We fumbled the future, again.

What is the moral of these reminiscences? My main lesson is that fumbling the future is very easy. I have done it myself! The future looks clear only in hindsight. It is rather easy to practically stare at it and not see it. It follows that those who did make the future happen deserve double and triple credit. They not only saw the future, but also trusted their vision to follow through, and translated vision to execution. We should all recognize the incredible contributions of those who did not fumble the future.