they assume careful preplanning minimizes risk and maximizes dependability and usability. However, more leaders are pushing for agile acquisition because the track record of the normal process in dynamic environments is so dismal.

The software engineering community has hotly debated preplanned versus agile processes. After a while they reached a truce where they agreed that preplanning is best for large systems where reliability and risk-avoidance are prime concerns, and agile is best for small to medium systems where adaptability and user friendliness are prime concerns.

We challenge that conclusion. Preplanning is ceasing to be a viable option for large systems. Moreover, many small systems aim to be ultra-reliable.

evolutionary ecosystems

Evolutionary development uses “loosely managed” processes. Numerous successful large systems evolved through such a process—CTSS, Unix, Linux, Internet, Google, Amazon, eBay, Apple iPhone Apps, and banking applications are notable examples. All these systems relied on a common platform used by all members of the community, from developers to users. In such an ecosystem, successful prototypes transition easily to working products. It appears that the common ecosystem provides enough constraints that loose management works. The successful ecosystems were guided by a vision and a set of interaction rules that everyone in the community accepted. Building ecosystems for governments is quite challenging because of organizational impediments to information sharing. ⁵ We advocate much more aggressive use of loosely managed ecosystems. The W2COG was conceived to allow government to join a large ecosystem that could adaptively address its information networking needs.

Loosely managed does not mean unmanaged. Scrum and Extreme Programming (XP) are often cited as successful management approaches for agile processes. ⁶ Even the respected Capability Management Model (CMM) is amenable to agile development.

Whereas preplanned development seeks to avoid risks, evolutionary development mimics nature and embraces

Whereas preplanned
development
seeks to avoid
risks, evolutionary
development mimics
nature and
embraces risks.

risks. The developers purposely expose emerging systems to risks to see how they fail, and then they build better system variants. It is better to seek risk out and learn how to survive it. In a natural ecosystem, only the most fit organisms survive. Fitness is nature’s way of managing risk.

All the evidence says that that evolutionary processes works for systems large and small, and that risk seeking is the fastest route to fitness. There is too much at stake to continue to allow us to be locked into a process that does not work.

 

References

1. boehm, b. making a difference in the software century.

IEEE Computer (mar. 2008), 32–38.

2. brooks, f. The Mythical Man Month. anniversary Edition. addison-Wesley, 1995.

3. cao, L. and balascubramaniam, r. agile software development: ad hoc practice or sound principles? IEEE Pro (mar.–apr. 2007), 41–47.

4. gao. Defense Acquisitions: Assessments of Selected Weapons Programs. report gao-06-391 (mar. 2006); http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d06391.pdf, and Information Technology: DOD Needs to Ensure That Navy Marine Corps Intranet Program Is Meeting Goals and Satisfying Customers. report gao-07-51. (dec. 2006); http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d0751.pdf.

55. hayes-roth, r., blais, c., brutzman, d. and Pullen, m. how to implement national information sharing strategy. AFCEA-GMU C4I Center Symposium: Critical Issues in C4I, george mason university, fairfax, va, afcEa (2008); http://c4i.gmu.edu/events/ reviews/2008/papers/25_hayes-roth.pdf.

6. schwaber, k. Agile Project Management with Scrum. microsoft Press, 2004.

 

Peter J. Denning ( pjd@nps.edu) is the director of the cebrowski institute for information innovation and superiority at the Naval Postgraduate school in monterey, ca, and is a past president of acm.

Chris Gunderson ( cgunders@w2cog.org), captain (retired) u.s. Navy, is Principal investigator of the Naval Postgraduate school W2cog and Netcentric certification office initiatives.

Rick Hayes-Roth ( hayes-roth@nps.edu) is Professor of information systems at the Naval Postgraduate school in monterey, california, and was c To for software at hewlett-Packard company.

Calendar
of Events

December 17-20
hipc ’08: 15th international
conference on high
performance computing
bangalore, india
sponsored: sigarch
contact: ajay K. gupta,
phone: 269-276-3104
email: ajay.gupta@wmich.edu

January 7-9 international conference on Multimedia Modeling sophia antipolis, France contact: benoit huet, phone: +33-0-493008179 email: benoit.huet@eurecom.fr

January 14-17
international conference
on bio-inspired systems and
signal processing
porto, portugal
contact: Joaquim b. Filipe,
phone: 351-91-983-3996
email: jfilipe@insticc.org

January 19-21
international conference
on agents and artificial
intelligence
porto, portugal
contact: Joaquim b. Filipe,
phone: 351-91-983-3996
email: jfilipe@insticc.org

January 19-22
asia and south pacific Design
automation conference
yokohama, Japan
contact: yutaka Tamiya,
phone: +81-44-754-2663
email: tamiya.yutaka@
jp.fujitsu.com

January 20-23
The eleventh australasian
computing education
conference
Wellington, New Zealand
contact: Margaret hamilton,
phone: 613-992-52939
email: mh@cs.rmit.edu.au

January 23-24
international conference
on advances in computing,
communication and control
Mumbai, india
contact: srija unnikrishnan,
phone: +919869005457
email: srija.unni@gmail.com